The Trump Factor in India's China Policy

New Delhi may need to recalibrate its balancing of power equations in the event of a thaw between Washington and Beijing

- Happymon Jacob

Donald Trump, who has just assumed office as United States (US) president, appears to have changed his stance on China, opting to engage with the country instead of, as he had claimed, imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. On Saturday, Washington ordered 25% tariffs on exports from Canada and Mexico, but kept tariffs on Chinese goods at 10%. A peaceful relationship between the US and China benefits the international order, and a stable international order is beneficial for everyone, theoretically speaking. However, for India, a rapprochement between Beijing and Washington creates two specific challenges, despite the broader benefits of a stable international order.

One, such a rapprochement or a global G2 between the US and China will reduce India's strategic options in the region in general and vis-à-vis China in particular. Two, Trump's outreach to China will complicate India's ability to cultivate the American desire to use India as a proxy against China without actually ever becoming one.

Trump 2.0 has significantly reshaped India's regional balancing options. India's dilemma, for instance, during the Joe Biden presidency, involved the challenge of maintaining its relationship with Russia while enhancing its strategic partnership with the US and European countries, both of whom wanted India to abandon Russia.