Missing wood for trees in the population debate

Recent statements by public figures encouraging Indian families, particularly women, to have three children once again overlook the real success of India's population policies and have reignited misguided debates on women's autonomy.

- Poonam Muttreja

The fear that a society with a total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime—below 2.1 could "disappear from the face of the earth" is totally unfounded. The statement sparked fresh panic, as many who were lamenting a "population explosion" until a week ago now began hand-wringing about a "population collapse." However, these calls to increase family size are not just misguided, they are fundamentally flawed. They undermine women's autonomy and overlook the nuanced measures India needs to address its demographic challenges.

India's population dynamics demand thoughtful consideration, not alarm. In 2023, the country surpassed China as the world's most populous nation. Its TFR, a crucial demographic indicator, has declined significantly from 3.4 in 1992-93 to 2.0 in 2019-21, dipping below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend, akin to patterns observed in developed nations, signifies societal progress facilitated by broader access to education, health care, and family planning services. According to United Nations projections, India's population is expected to peak at 1.7 billion in the 2060s and gradually decline to 1.5 billion by 2100. This demographic dividend—its large and youthful population—offers an incredible opportunity to reshape the nation's future. With over 365 million young people aged 10 to 24, India is set to have one of the biggest workforces in the world in the next three decades. But this potential can be unlocked only if we invest in quality education, child nutrition, accessible health care, skill development, and meaningful jobs.