Need to hedge against variability of monsoon

For a heavily agriculture-dependent population, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s prediction of above normal monsoon this year would normally be good news, with the obvious implications for harvest, and by extension, for both rural consumption and food prices.

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But it would be pragmatic to temper expectations given IMD's poor record on accuracy — a Hindustan Times analysis shows that the accuracy of its first forecasts is lower than the chances of correctly calling a coin toss.