India's wheat harvest defies market speculation

A strong wheat harvest in India is rapidly replenishing stocks, meaning the country will be able to meet domestic demand without imports this year, contrary to market talk that it would need overseas supplies, and a potential drag on global prices.

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India banned exports of the staple in 2022 and extended the prohibition as extreme heat shrivelled crops again in 2023 and 2024, draining reserves, pushing prices to record highs and fuelling speculation it would need imports for the first time since 2017. But things are improving for the world's No.2 wheat producer, with early state inventory purchases signalling that this year's crop is about 4 million tons bigger than last year's, six industry and government officials said.

"After barely scraping through without imports in recent years, the country finally seems to be out of the woods and free from the fear of having to import wheat," said Amit Takkar, chief of New Delhi-based farm consultancy Conifer Commodities. The Food Corporation of India, the state stockpiler, has bought 29.7 million metric tons of new-season wheat from domestic farmers - the most in four years - after missing procurement targets for three consecutive years.