Global economy faces the prospect of another shock

IN THE MOST hopeful scenario for the global economy, the latest war in West Asia ends within a few weeks.

- PETER S. GOODMAN

The region continues to produce oil and gas. Shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, preventing a shock to the world’s energy supplies. Fear of inflation subsides.But experts cautioned against any hasty sense of reassurance. The American and Israeli bombing of Iran, and Iranian reprisals throughout the region, set dangers in motion that pose a substantial threat to global economic fortunes.

The most alarming fears centred on the possibility that the Iranian government — pushed to the brink of elimination — might unleash more aggressive retaliation, accepting the near-certainty of the intensified bombing of its own territory as the cost of fighting another day. The Iranians would presumably seek to damage the capacity to produce oil and gas in regional powers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Any event that extends the conflict or threatens sources of oil and gas is likely to lift energy prices to levels that would sow inflation. That could prompt central banks worldwide to raise interest rates, pushing up the costs of mortgages, car loans and other borrowing. And that would choke off consumer spending and business investment — a classic pathway to a downturn.

“We're in a very precarious period,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor at Harvard.