Poll: Plaid on course for Senedd election victory

PLAID Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is on course to be First Minister, a major new YouGov poll in Wales has suggested.

- By RUTH MOSALSKI

Plaid is on course to win the largest number of seats in the Senedd next May, according to the poll of 2,500 adults in Wales.

The data shows Labour is continuing to haemorrhage support and will be in a distant third place in a Welsh Parliament dominated by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK after the election in May next year, if the trends shown in the polling are repeated at the ballot box.

The Conservatives, Green Party and Lib Dems all look set to win a small number of seats in the new-look, expanded Senedd from May, according to analysis done by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, which commissioned the poll.

It would be historic if those projections came true, as Labour has run the government in Wales in all the 26 years of devolution, and has an unbeaten record in decades of Westminster elections.

This poll gives the following headline figures for each of the party:

■Plaid Cymru 33%

■Reform UK 30%

Labour 10%

■Conservatives 10%

■Green 9%

Lib Dem 6%

@ Other 3%

And Cardiff University projects that it would give Plaid the largest number of seats:

I Plaid Cymru: 39 seats

@ Reform UK: 34 seats

@ Labour: 10 seats

@ Conservatives: 6 seats

I Green Party: 4 seats

Lib Dems: 3 seats

The poll saw 2,500 adults in Wales quizzed online between November 28 and December 10.

It asked their voting intention in May’s Senedd election, an election where the voting system, constituencies and number of politicians to be elected will all change.

The poll shows yet further decline for Labour.