'Extremely concerning' £5,000 fall in Welsh farm incomes is predicted

NEW impact modelling for Welsh agriculture shows incomes could fall 16% - around £4,900 per farm - when a new payments regime starts next year.

- By ANDREW FORGRAVE

While the consequences are less severe than cataclysmic forecasts before the scheme was tweaked, farm leaders say the figures remain “extremely concerning”.

A previous iteration of the scheme led to doomsday forecasts of an 85% fall in farm incomes. Also forecasted was a 10.8% reduction in Welsh livestock numbers, along with 11% cut in job numbers.

This prompted a symbolic display of 5,500 pairs of wellies at the Senedd to represent the number of jobs expected to be lost through the Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) proposals.

Following protests, the scheme was altered to include a Social Value Payment and give more funding for universal payments to all farmers. A controversial requirement to plant trees on 10% of each farm was also dropped.

Latest modelling published this week for SFS universal actions shows the impacts are now less severe - but they will still be profound. According to NFU Cymru, in a worst case scenario the new scheme will result in around 5% fewer livestock, 4% fewer jobs and a 16% drop in farm business incomes.

The union said the damaging forecasts show that the Welsh Government must do more to protect the industry from financial harm. NFU Cymru president Aled Jones accepted the figures were less alarming than before the scheme was revised - but he said they were still worrying.

He called for a scheme that gives parity with the existing Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) for farmers. He said: