LOCAL SEA STORIES AMID MIDDLE EAST TURBULENCE

EVERYONE knows why that arrogant White House occupant sent his B-2 bombers to drop those bunker-busters on Iranian nuclear sites, but what terrible timing! Iran seemed to be moving towards negotiations of which little chance remains after the impulsive importer of disgruntled South African cotton-pickers jumped the gun.

- BRIAN INGPEN

While many may endorse the Israeli attacks and the subsequent US bombing raid, the world awaits the inevitable backlash against US interests by Iranian proxies, sleeper-cells, agents and other supporters. An obvious target is the vital Straits of Hormuz, although an indiscriminate blockade of the straits - such as the use of sea mines - will impact Iran's own oil export programme and its imports.

Such a step will not go down well with other Gulf States, also dependent on the straits for their food and other vital imports, as well as for their high-revenue-earning oil exports. If Iran chooses to attack ships transiting the straits, swarms of small, fast missile-carrying gunboats, drones or land-launched missiles probably will form its main armoury.

The current threat to the Gulf oil trade will benefit other suppliers and more tankers may be ordered to load in West Africa or Brazil. Many of these vessels arriving from or moving oil to Asia will pass the Cape in both directions.

As mentioned in last week's column, the oil price increased further on Sunday when news broke of the US bombings, but curiously, the price slipped on Monday, despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East.

Iran's proxy - the Houthis - will continue to present a significant threat to shipping using the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea route, consigning the Suez Canal to a further decrease in traffic with a commensurate decline in revenue accruing to Egypt.