Three days that matter

EVERY TYPHOON season in the Philippines brings a cycle of loss that is predictable as it is devastating. Fields are flattened, boats destroyed, markets disrupted, and families forced into years of recovery. Yet amid this familiar pattern, a quiet but consequential policy shift is taking hold.

- By Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. and Lionel Dabbadie

The Philippines is no longer relying solely on post-disaster response. It is moving toward a governance model that acts before disaster strikes: anticipatory action rooted in science, backed by financing, and embedded in local systems.

That shift was on full display in November, when the country’s Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) activated an anticipatory action pilot in Region II three days before Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) made landfall. In coordination with DA’s Special Area for Agricultural Development Program and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, the agencies released locally tailored agroclimatic advisories and protected crops, livestock, and fishing boats while it was still safe to do so. These early measures shielded hundreds of smallholders — people who could not have afforded to evacuate or safeguard their assets without outside support.

The evidence is clear: anticipatory action can reduce disaster losses by up to 3.5 times compared with traditional reactive approaches. For a sector as exposed as agriculture, the potential gains in resilience and poverty reduction are immense.

A year earlier, in November 2024, those gains were put to the test. Six tropical cyclones, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi (Pepito), battered the country in less than a month. Instead of overwhelming local capacity, the sequence became the first real-world activation of the Philippines’ forecast-based financing system. Once scientific triggers such as wind speed, rainfall, projected damage, and modelled impacts on vulnerable communities were reached, funds and technical support were released within minutes, up to 72 hours before landfall.