Running uphill: Why growth and jobs are harder - but still worth chasing

GROWING FAST and creating good jobs these days? It's like running uphill.

- By Gonzalo J. Varela

Just as countries were beginning to emerge from the COVID-19 shock still carrying debt overhangs and grappling with learning losses, the world economy started to slow. By 2027, global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5% in the 2020s the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s.

Climate change is taking an increasing toll, especially on vulnerable economies. Technological disruptions from AI to automation are reshaping labor markets and threatening to weaken the link between growth and job creation if appropriate policy measures are not deployed. And geopolitical fragmentation is making the global environment less conducive to trade, investment, and knowledge diffusion, even if regional integration remains strong within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia and the Pacific region (EAP).

For countries like the Philippines, these headwinds compound a perennial challenge: sustaining fast, inclusive growth after reaching middle-income status a challenge often referred to as the middle-income trap. But difficult doesn't mean impossible.

REPORT: PROGRESS IS ACHIEVABLE

The World Bank's Growth and Jobs report: "Running Uphill: Growth Jobs, and the Quest for Productivity," shows that progress is achievable for the Philippines. Drawing on a wide array of data sources and cutting-edge methods, the report examines how the Philippines has performed in generating growth and jobs over recent decades, what worked, what didn't and what can be done to sustain progress. The results are compelling: if a bold reform agenda is implemented, the Philippines could grow by an average of 6.8% annually through 2040, generating 5.1 million additional jobs and increasing real wages by 12.9% above what would occur under business-as-usual trends.