China is going on the offensive in Southeast Asia

CHINA is expanding its defense networks in Southeast Asia, and that risks carving the region into rival camps: one aligned with Beijing, the other friendly to Washington. Left unchecked, the Chinese — and by extension, Russian — presence will become even more deeply embedded, setting the stage for a dangerous new round of superpower competition in the Indo-Pacific.

- By Kaishma Vaswani

These findings, outlined in the Sydney-based Lowy Institute’s latest report*, come as President Xi Jinping is forging ever stronger international partnerships. Over the weekend, he welcomed India’s Narendra Modi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Tianjin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation**. Xi and Modi pledged deeper cooperation in the face of the US trade war, and Modi announced the resumption of direct flights between the two countries. Xi said relations would flourish if they remained partners rather than rivals.

On Wednesday, Xi will host the Russian president again, along with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, at a parade to mark the 80" anniversary of the end of World War II.

These moves highlight a subtle but significant shift in power in the region that is challenging for Washington. To avoid a further erosion of influence, the US and nations like Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea must strengthen their alliances. But these relationships are under pressure as the White House recalibrates its global defense strategy.

For decades, Southeast Asia has managed a delicate dance between the superpowers. Security guarantees came from the US, while China has grown to be the most important economic partner. That’s not changing yet — but Beijing is closing the gap.