Benign inflation gives BSP room to cut

BELOW-TARGET June inflation gives the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) room to continue its easing cycle this year, but unexpected price shocks and the US Federal Reserve's rate path could affect this outlook.

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Finance Secretary and Monetary Board member Ralph G. Recto said in a statement on Friday that the lower-than-expected June inflation print “provides more room for the BSP to further cut policy interest rates to help us further boost the spending power of Filipinos, drive in more investments, and grow the economy, especially amid rising global uncertainties.”

“With the outlook for inflation remaining favorable and recent guidance from the BSP leaning dovish, another rate cut in the coming months is possible,” Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a note.

Inflation picked up to 1.4% in June from 1.3% in May, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported on Friday.

Still, this was slower than the 3.7% clip in June last year and was within the central bank’s 1.1% to 1.9% forecast for the month. This was also just below the 1.5% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts.

June marked the fourth straight month that inflation settled below the BSP’s 2-4% annual target.

For the first six months, headline inflation averaged 1.8%, slightly higher than the central bank’s baseline forecast of 1.6%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said on Thursday that the central bank has room for two more rate cuts this year amid moderating inflation and weak economic growth.

The Monetary Board on June 19 delivered a second straight 25-basis-point (bp) cut to bring the policy rate to 5.25%. It has now lowered benchmark interest rates by a cumulative 125 bps since it started its easing cycle in August last year.

Its remaining policy meetings this year are scheduled for Aug. 28, Oct. 9, and Dec. 11.

Mr. Neri said the consumer price index is expected to stay below 2% in July and August amid easing rice prices.