Steelmakers Eye Robust Growth in FY26 But China Clouds Gather

Indian steelmakers are eyeing stronger growth this financial year (FY26), supported by the recent safeguard duty on imports and improved steel spreads.

- ISHITA AYAN DUTT

However, China remains a wildcard.

Steel imports started dropping in the lead-up to the government's provisional safeguard duty—a measure aimed at protecting domestic producers from a flood of cheap imports.

Data from price reporting and market intelligence firm BigMint showed that India's steel imports fell 21 percent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in January-April 2025 to 2.85 million tonnes (mt). Imports from China stood at 1.11 mt in the same period previous year, which reduced to 0.50 mt during January-April 2025.

This reflected on steel prices. The monthly average for hot rolled coil (HRC) ex-Mumbai increased from ₹46,878 per tonne in December to ₹52,033 per tonne in April.

It was at the same level in May 2025, while the average in May 2024 was at ₹54,100 per tonne.

Post-safeguard steel prices have not increased to the extent that was anticipated. "There are concerns around Chinese steel prices, which are trending down. Moreover, it continues to push volumes into the rest of the world," said Ranjan Dhar, director and vice-president—sales and marketing at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India).