Record Hot 2023? El Niño May Add Fuel To India's Climate Crisis

Planet-warming threshold of 1.5 P degrees Celsius (1.5°C) is feared to be breached this year, triggering a cascading impact on India's weather patterns, including the monsoon. A 1.5°C increase in the average Earth's temperature is measured over a base of pre-industrial temperature.

- Shreya Jai & Sanjeeb Mukherjee

Rain patterns in India are also expected to get altered with the return of El Niño in 2023.

Climate scientists and meteorological agencies the world over say that El Niño will exacerbate climate change-related impact and cause the planet's temperature to briefly cross the 1.5°C warming threshold.

With El Niño set to return this year, an already warming Earth and ocean surface due to global climate changes could see unprecedented and extreme weather events. As the Pacific heats up, the Indo-Pacific region could see stark weather, ranging from heatwaves and floods to droughts.

Indian meteorologists are of the view that the actual impact of El Niño on the rainy season is too far away to predict. "There are only some models predicting an El Niño during the approaching monsoon season. It is too early to hazard a guess because the long duration forecast of the El Niño is less accurate," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Business Standard.

Return of El Niño

Several global models are predicting El Niño to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.

El Niño occurs when the surface water in the Equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average and the east winds blow weaker than normal. The weather pattern generally occurs every three to five years.