Chasing the Monsoon

The southwest monsoon remains an important event in the Indian calendar, despite signs of resilience in the agriculture sector

- SANJEEB MUKHERJEE

With about a month to go, the countdown has begun for the 2025 southwest monsoon forecast. Economists, agriculture experts and policy gurus are all looking to the skies, in a manner of speaking, as they wait for the official monsoon forecast—an event of immense significance for the entire country. Whether it's the pure-play agriculture sector or the related ecosystem, monsoon is serious business.

The June-September monsoon months determine not only agriculture production but also rural consumption and general economic growth. While recent studies show that India and particularly its agriculture have, of late, become somewhat resilient to the vagaries of the southwest monsoon, the four-month rainy season that provides more than 70 per cent of the country's annual precipitation remains a top of the charts event.

Why is monsoon a big event

The monsoon is unarguably the lifeline of India's economy, particularly the agriculture sector, and its spillover effect is felt in almost every other sphere of economic activity. A recent World Bank Working Paper titled 'Weather Shocks and Rural Economic Linkages', which examined the complex relationships between rainfall shocks, agricultural productivity, and rural economic activity in Rajasthan, India's largest state by area, underscored this fact.