'Q1 GDP woes of greater concern'

FORMER Cabinet Secretary Rene Almendras said he is more alarmed about the Philippine economy's first-quarter performance than the potential fallout from the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

- MALOU TALOSIG-BARTOLOME & ANDREA E. SAN JUAN

"But we have other challenges in the Philippine economy, which is our GDP for the first quarter. We're worried about that," Almendras told the BusinessMirror during Japan's National Day reception Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, the Philippine economy will likely grow at a faster pace of 5 percent in 2026, seen to be propelled by a "gradual" recovery in public investment and government spending, according to projections by Switzerland-based UBS Investment Bank.

Almendras, who serves as the private sector representative to President Marcos Jr.'s advisory body, the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC), underscored weak consumption and reduced infrastructure spending as critical risks in the first quarter.

"I'm worried about consumption. I'm worried about the reduced spending of government and infrastructure," said Almendras, who also served as energy and acting foreign affairs secretary during the presidency of Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" Aquino.

UBS: 5 percent growth in 2026

IN a statement on Wednesday, the Zurich-based lender UBS said it expects the Philippine economy to "rebound to 5 percent" in 2026 after it expanded by 4.4 percent in 2025.

"Looking ahead, we believe growth is near its trough, and we expect quarterly sequential momentum to strengthen to 1.4 percent over the next two quarters, and GDP growth to be 5 percent in 2026," UBS said.

According to UBS, its revised forecasts penciled in "gradual and backloaded" recovery in public investment, starting with a small uptick in the first quarter of 2026, with spending returning to the levels in the second quarter of 2025 by the fourth quarter of this year.