VOLATILITY EASING AS TRADERS ADJUST TO WAR

Trade on Thai and global stock markets has been volatile this month amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

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This week, attacks on energy infrastructure by both the Israeli-US and Iranian sides are having a direct impact on energy prices and availability.

The impact will not be limited to the energy sector, but could lead to shortages of other raw materials, particularly petrochemicals.

However, the magnitude of market volatility has eased somewhat, compared with the initial stage after the war broke out, as traders are adjusting to conditions. More importantly, the potential effects of a conflict lasting four to six weeks has now been largely priced in for many of the stocks expected to see the most impact. Locally, the SET index this week stayed within a range of 1,400 to 1,450 points as a result.

The domestic political situation has become less of a focus. The election of a new prime minister went ahead without incident and formation of a new cabinet appears to be moving along smoothly. However, investors are keeping an eye on the Constitutional Court after it accepted a complaint about barcodes on ballots in the Feb 8 election and summoned the Election Commission to present clarifications within 15 days.