Trump regime 'overcommitted' outside the US

Here’s what's probably happening in Venezuela today.

- Gwynne Dyer

All over the country, army bases are quietly moving weapons and explosives out of storage and handing them out to loyal members of the ruling United Socialist Party. If Donald Trump does put American “boots on the ground’ the Resistance will want those weapons to be widely distributed and well hidden.From Napoleon in Spain two centuries ago to the US army in Iraq two decades ago, military occupations by foreigners usually generate armed resistance movements. These will always be condemned as “terrorism” by the invaders, because resistance fighters cannot win stand-up fights against air strikes and armoured vehicles.

Instead, they use car bombs, assassinations, and other low-tech methods that can be seen as unfair and even criminal. Nevertheless, they usually win in the end, because the occupiers are fighting nationalism and sometimes also religion. It’s easy to conquer countries, but it’s getting harder to control them.

We don’t yet know if this scenario will play out in Venezuela, because as far as we know, there are not yet any US troops on the ground there. Without them, Mr Trump has extremely limited leverage on the Venezuelan regime, which has not been decapitated or even seriously crippled by the kidnapping of former bus-driver Nicolas Maduro and his wife.