Thaksin’s magic and influence fading

Pheu Thai's de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, joined a dinner with coalition parties earlier this week in an effort to revitalise the ruling party.

- Chairith Yonpiam

Yet the outcome was far from reassuring.

Given recent developments — including his visible eagerness — it’s clear Thaksin is deeply concerned about the government's stability, especially after Bhumjaithai’s departure from the coalition and the legal cases filed in the Constitutional Court and National Anti-Corruption Commission against his daughter, Paetongtarn, who has been suspended as prime minister following the leak of a controversial phone conversation with Hun Sen.

The coalition is clearly fragile, with a razor-thin majority of just 15-20 votes over the opposition bloc. This explains why the deputy House speaker from Pheu Thai has moved to abruptly adjourn meetings at least three times this month, rather than allowing quorum checks requested by the opposition. These early adjournments are a deliberate tactic to prevent the collapse of House sessions. Pheu Thai knows it cannot fully control its own MPs and therefore cannot risk crucial bills being blocked in parliament — a single failure to pass key legislation could spell the end of the administration.

Under such circumstances, the once-powerful Pheu Thai Party is struggling. It cannot rely on this parliamentary tactic for long. Constantly adjourning Lower House sessions delays the passage of laws and policies — a move that signals an inability to govern. And if the Constitutional Court ultimately removes Paetongtarn from office, even a minor misstep by the party could trigger its downfall.

But Thaksin refuses to lie low. Instead, he has placed himself on several — if not all — political frontlines after briefly keeping a low profile, possibly out of fear of further revelations from former ally turned adversary, Hun Sen. The dinner was initially intended as a forum for power consolidation — a risky move, as it could be seen as an assertion of his dominance over the coalition, potentially breaching the Political Parties Act, which carries the penalty of party dissolution.