Russia’s car market faces a bleak 2026

Russia's depressed car market has shown weak signs of recovery as 2025 draws to an end but is set to hit near-record lows early next year as higher scrappage fees drive up prices, dealers and experts say.

- GLEB STOLYAROV

Far from signalling a genuine rebound, a jump in sales of new cars in October reflects a rush by buyers to complete purchases before the higher charges kick in, they say.

The outlook highlights the structural crisis in Russia's auto sector that goes back to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Once seen as one of Europe’s most promising markets, with potential sales of up to 4 million cars a year, it has been battered by the exit of Western manufacturers and by years of high interest rates that have pushed up the cost of car loans. The wider Russian economy has also slowed sharply this year, undermining consumers’ purchasing power.

In the coming weeks, more pain looms for buyers of new vehicles as they face an inevitable rise in prices.

PROTECTIONIST MEASURE

From Dec 1 authorities will sharply raise the recycling fee for powerful and expensive cars, mainly imported by individuals for personal use. From Jan 1, the fee for all cars will rise by about 10% in line with inflation.