China unfazed as aluminium capacity peaks

China's aluminium production juggernaut is finally running out of road as the country’s output approaches the government's capacity limit.

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Massive investment in primary metal smelting capacity has lifted Chinese production to 43 million in 2024, or 60% of global output, from just four million metric tonnes in 2004. Its growing dominance of the global aluminium supply chain has met increasing resistance from Western countries, initially in the form of trade complaints and anti-dumping duties and more recently in the form of US tariffs.

None of which has stemmed China's exports of semi-fabricated aluminium products, which jumped by 19% to hit a record 6.2 million tons last year.

But things are about to change.

Beijing's aluminium “Action Plan” for 2025-2027 confirms the capacity cap remains in place and sets out a strategy for what happens next.

China's primary aluminium production grew by 2.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to the International Aluminium Institute.

Annualised production averaged 44 million tonnes over January-March, just a million tonnes short of the 45-million tonne cap, which was set in 2017.

It is technically possible for the country's production to exceed the cap, according to consultancy AZ Global.