Bolsonaro coup attempt won’t land him in jail

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's former president and Trump clone, is facing trial for encouraging a plot that would have restored him to power after he lost the 2022 election, but it is unlikely that he will ever end up in court.

- Gwynne Dyer

Two weeks ago, Mr Bolsonaro had his sixth operation to deal with the intestinal damage he suffered in an assassination attempt in 2018. He left the hospital last Wednesday after the successful operation.

The former army captain and hard-right politician who was Brazil’s president in 2019-2022 was already facing political oblivion. When he called on his supporters to make a show of strength on Rio's Copacabana Beach last (southern) summer, he hoped for more than a million people. About 18,000 turned up.

Mr Bolsonaro could go to jail for more than 40 years if he is found guilty of plotting to reverse his electoral defeat in 2022 by a military coup, and it’s very likely that he would be convicted if he survives. The five supreme court judges were unanimous in ruling that he should stand trial. He claims he is the target of a political “witch hunt’, of course.

Mr Bolsonaro and seven allies (four generals, a colonel, his civilian spy chief and security minister) were charged with involvement in an armed criminal organisation, planning a coup d’état and violently attempting to abolish Brazilian democracy. His former personal assistant, Lt Col Mauro Cid, has already made a plea deal and spilt his guts, so it looks bad for all the others.