The Risk Report

SIGNALS ARE GROWING LOUDER that U.S. President Donald Trump wants Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of office. He'd like to accomplish this without starting a war that might not go to plan.

- By Ian Bremmer

President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on Oct. 12

So far, U.S. military action against Venezuela has been limited to strikes against more than a dozen boats the White House insists are carrying narcotics toward the U.S.—drugs that Trump said in a Nov. 2 interview on 60 Minutes are “destroying families all over our country.” Asked if that meant war, Trump said, “I don't think so. But they've been treating us very badly.” At least 64 people have reportedly been killed by U.S. strikes on boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific in recent weeks.

The U.S. has now moved significant military hardware into position in the Caribbean, deploying an aircraft-carrier group and placing significant naval strike capability and U.S. troops just off Venezuela's coast. The next U.S. step could be to hit targets inside Venezuela that the Trump Administration insists fuel the drug trade. “I'm not gonna tell you what I'm gonna do with Venezuela, if I was gonna do it or if I wasn't going to do it,” Trump said in the same 60 Minutes interview. In addition, U.S. officials reportedly told the