LONE STAR PREVIEW

A wild Texas primary illuminates the dilemma facing both parties

- PHILIP ELLIOTT

NO Other candidate on the ballot this year made a bigger splash simply by entering a race than Ken Paxton.

The firebrand Texas attorney general and Donald Trump booster is giving U.S. Senator John Cornyn a serious threat in the GOP primary, which in turn has launched an increasingly nasty fight among Democrats who view Paxton as beatable. Now, with early voting for the March 3 primary under way, it’s not just the mudslinging that has insiders in both parties watching with high anxiety. The dynamics in this race may well propel the entire election cycle. And the next.

For Senate Republicans, Texas was not supposed to be a problem child this year. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over three decades—since 1994. Cornyn, a sharp pol who is a holdover from the George W. Bush era, was widely expected to cruise to a fifth term this November. But along the way, the race has turned into a political dilemma for both sides.

The fulcrum for the chaos is Paxton, a polarizing figure whose potential strength among MAGA diehards triggered Cornyn’s allies to dump $50 million and counting on ads to prop up the incumbent. Polling from the University of Houston conducted at the end of January showed Paxton leading by 7 points with 38% of the vote, followed by Cornyn at 31% and a third candidate, U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, drawing 17% support. Cornyn, who was once seen as the heir to epic Senate leader Mitch McConnell, now finds himself in the political fight of his life.