Readying for the world

To pursue its global ambitions, India must first knit its neighbours together in a web of interdependencies and stop China from being the dominant power in Asia

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IT IS A FORTUITOUS coincidence that the NITI Aayog has just released its approach paper on a “Vision for Viksit Bharat@2047”, the year marking the 100th anniversary of India’s independence. In exploring what India’s international role and status would be in that year, one may note certain key assumptions and projections contained in the paper.

The “Vision” sets the goal of our national endeavours at becoming a developed nation, for which “we need to strive to be a $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per capita income of $18,000 ( ₹15 lakh) per annum. The GDP would have to grow nine times from today’s $3.36 trillion and the per capita income would need to rise eight times from today’s $2,392 ( ₹2 lakh) per annum.”

The paper declares: “In a Viksit Bharat, the economy will be a leading global economy, a driver of global economic growth, a magnet of global talent, trade and capital. Its cities and markets will be among the largest and top-most business and financial centres of the world.” Further, there will be “Indian-origin Global Business Champions in manufacturing, services, agriculture, R&D and innovation, technology and scale.”

These projections would make India the third largest economy in 2047 behind China and the US, but what would be the gap with these two powers? It is the relative equation which matters. The Indian economy may end up half as large as China’s, and two-thirds of the US. Projected to grow faster than both China and the US, India would have shrunk the gap with both countries and this will bestow greater agency on it in the shaping and management of the international order by mid-century.