House swap

Labour's polling resurgence mirrors National's decline, but their suitors' fortunes cloud predictions.

- Danyl McLauchlan

It’s been two years since the coalition government formed, and we’re probably a year until the next election – barring a snap election, pandemic, rapture, regional war or technological singularity. Where do the parties stand?

The chart below shows the change between the party vote of each parliamentary party in the 2023 election and the 30-day average of the most recent public polls. Labour’s gains tower over the political landscape like a Soviet-era monument, although here the concrete edifice blotting out the sun features a boy-faced man eating a sausage roll, rather than the grim visage of Marx or Lenin. Labour’s party vote in the election was 26.92% and it now sits on an average of 32.5%.

It has shown extraordinary restraint, focusing on health and the cost of living. There have been few blunders: Willow-Jean Prime’s refusal to meet Education Minister Erica Stanford over changes in that portfolio was the most embarrassing, and every instance in which Willie Jackson speaks on behalf of his party constitutes a sustained gaffe.

But it has not enjoyed many triumphs. With the exception of Ayesha Verrall’s prosecution of New Zealand First’s Casey Costello, no government minister has seemed under threat from a Labour MP. Effective ministers are generally effective in opposition: other than a handful of strong performers – like Verrall – we have no sense that Hipkins’ caucus could credibly govern the country.

But the numbers don’t lie. Labour’s risk-minimisation strategy has worked. So why is it releasing policy that increases its exposure to risk? Couldn’t its MPs keep their mouths shut for another year and let the Prime Minister do their jobs for them?