TRUMPING TRUMP

Donald Trump is a walking, talking, known unknown-as everybody knows. His tariff war was always expected, but his blitzkrieg on the world order still took most of us by surprise.

- Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Amitabh Kant, Shivshankar Menon, R.C. Bhargava, Bhaskar Chakravorti

As global markets, governments and policymakers take stock of the debris of globalisation he has left in his protectionist wake, we asked a panel of experts to assess what India could salvage from the situation. While the equation for America's 'reciprocal tariffs' is less algebra than abracadabra, there is also a clear intent behind the alternative facts that drive Trumpian policy. India's position is more ambiguous than most, as our writers point out, and a strategy of ahimsa rather than retaliation seems the better part of valour. As ever, there are opportunities in this crisis-and not just for India. Could Trump's gamble be China's or even Europe's moment? Or are we already witnessing a conciliatory climbdown in the name of the art of the deal? India will clearly have to hedge its bets and prioritise situational awareness in the dynamic disruption of the new world system. In the following pages, five leading experts spell out some of the ways India can trim its sails to ride out the tariff tsunami.

Weathering the Trade Tsunami

India needs to strengthen trade relations with countries other than the United States on the basis of multilaterally agreed rules while dealing bilaterally with America itself

By Montek Singh Ahluwalia

The headlines of the past week were dominated by President Donald Trump as he imposed a blanket 10 per cent tariff on all countries, with 57 of them singled out for much higher and varying rates. The unilateral imposition of different tariffs on different countries violated the "most favoured nation" clause of the world trading system, which prohibits discrimination across countries except as part of a free trade arrangement.