What a Second Donald Trump Administration Means for Arctic Security

While most media attention focuses on the future of Ukraine under the next Trump administration, another more distant region is equally prone to disruption.

- Daniel McVicar

In recent years, the relative peace and obscurity of the High North that contributed to the theory of “Arctic Exceptionalism” has collapsed. It has become abundantly clear that the Arctic is not immune to geopolitical developments. The Arctic Council best known for its environmental and search and rescue partnerships between Canada, Denmark via Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US – has largely ceased operations since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The decline of the Arctic Council, paired with a rebalancing of Russian forces away from the Arctic, offers a historic opportunity for US leadership in the region.

What the War in Ukraine means for Russia’s Arctic force posture

While Moscow has recently expanded its military presence in the Arctic by reopening several Soviet-era bases and conducting large-scale military exercises, it has been forced to divert the vast majority of its military resources to Ukraine. The battlefield in Ukraine is inextricably linked to Russia’s Arctic power projection. While some of Russia's specialized assets, such as its icebreaker fleet, obviously cannot be used in Ukraine, most of Russia's Arctic military assets are fungible, and many have already been transferred to Ukraine. According to a study by CSIS, Russian Arctic ground forces have significantly deteriorated. It is reported that the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 61st Independent Naval Brigade, 80th Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade, and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division have been involved in combat in Ukraine. In addition to shifting military assets from the Arctic, Moscow has had to deprioritize dual-use infrastructure improvements planned to connect its many remote Arctic outposts and forward bases. While Russia continues to claim that it is increasing readiness of the Northern Fleet and ramping up icebreaker production, this is doubtful given the immense resource drain in Ukraine.