TURNING HOMEWARD

The era of onsite US work ends, pushing Indian engineers towards domestic growth and GCCs

- 

At the turn of the millennium, a posting to America was the ultimate career upgrade for India's software engineers.

The H-1B visa was a ticket to Chicago, San Jose or Seattle, and a passport to prosperity back home. The "onsite dream", as it came to be known, built not just careers but families. In fact, it fuelled the rise of a new class in India: IT-rich.

That dream may have just been priced out of existence. In late September, US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing a $1,00,000 annual fee on each H-1B visa. Whether the move survives a legal challenge is uncertain, as US presidents cannot normally impose fees beyond cost recovery, but the intent is clear. Washington has decided to tax the very talent that helped build Silicon Valley.

The policy has sent shockwaves through Indian IT, which continues to dominate global H-1B approvals. The fee is nearly ten thousand percent higher than the previous cost of $1,000.

Framed as a measure to prioritize American workers, this move signals the end of the onsite era and challenges the assumptions underpinning India's 250-billion-dollar IT industry. Though in a relaxation of its rules this month, the US government has said that the fee will not apply to applications for a change of status or an extension of stay in the US.

A NUMBERS-DRIVEN CRISIS

In 2024, around 4,00,000 applications were approved, more than double the number issued in 2000 but below the 2022 peak of 4,42,425. Renewals accounted for 65% of approvals, with new applications at 35%. Most approvals have historically been renewals, which are exempt from the annual cap of 85,000 visas. Denial rates have fallen sharply under the Biden administration, staying below 3% after peaking at 15% during the Trump-era restrictions.