STAR SPANGLED GAMBLERS

THE PROFESSIONAL TRADERS WHO BET ON ELECTIONS ARE OUTSMARTING POLLSTERS AND PUNDITS. HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN DEMOCRACY MEETS THE STOCK MARKET.

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APERITIVO HOUR IS UPON US IN A piazza on the sun-drenched edge of Lake Como, arguably one of the most romantic places on earth, and my boyfriend and I are drinking prosecco and talking about... Liz Cheney. We are wondering, on this midAugust afternoon, what percentage of the Wyoming primary vote do we think she will win?

This isn't an academic question. I want to bet on Cheney's chances through PredictIt, a political betting market, and I want my boyfriend, who has a doctorate in political science, to help me. (We are in Como to see his beloved Arkansas Razorbacks play basketball, so I figure he owes me.) He talks about former president Donald Trump's crusade against Cheney while I pull up FiveThirtyEight on my phone. I then end up so far down the Google rabbit hole that I find myself reading a Republican Wyoming town council member's MailChimp newsletter. Its analysis of new voter registration lays out a possible path to victory for Cheney, though I'm not sufficiently convinced to start cross-checking the data.