What to expect in 2026

The world faces a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological, and social pressures.

- Theo Venter

South Africa finds itself in the midst of these external factors as a small and vulnerable economy of less that 1% of global GDP. The year 2025 was a very interesting year with far fewer elections compared to 2024 when about a third of the world population had elections of some kind.

In 2026, over 50 countries will be voting. Examples are US midterms, Brazil (presidential), Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Peru, Sweden and Bangladesh, which could entrench or upend populist leaders.

In 2025, the conflicts in the Middle East continued as well as the war between Ukraine and Russia, but the most disruptive global event was the introduction of the Trump tariff regime.

South Africa also experienced a 30% tariff on many exports to the US, and several agricultural products were included in the tariff increase. Looking at 2026, I will first review the global landscape, and then what we can expect in South Africa.

TRUMP WILL STILL DOMINATE

If Donald Trump dominated international affairs in 2025, he will be more dominating in 2026 because the US will celebrate its 250th anniversary (in Trump style) in July, and the US will also co-host the Fifa Soccer World Cup in June and July 2026, the biggest global sporting event next to the Olympics every four years.