Land reform will not result in 15% growth

Giving land to inexperienced farmers while retaining property rights will not improve agricultural sustainability. Fixing problems such as load-shedding, vaccine shortages and infrastructure will, says Dr Koos Coetzee.

- Dr Koos Coetzee

In a recent, widely published statement, Agbiz economist Wandile Sihlobo said South Africa’s agriculture sector would grow by between 10% and 15% by 2027, provided land reform were carried out properly. By that, he meant that productive land should be given to the proper beneficiaries.

According to him, only 10% of commercial farmers were black, and this imbalance should be addressed.

He estimated that the sector would then be able to create one million jobs. Unfortunately, he did not explain how the transfer of productive land to the previously disadvantaged would result in higher production.

Our agriculture sector has, over time, illustrated its ability to grow despite natural and other limitations. An annual target of 2,4% to 3,6% seems reasonable. In the decade from 2011 to 2022, the sector grew by 3,8% a year in real terms.

Growth slowed to a marginally positive growth of 0,3% in 2022, and first-quarter growth in 2023 was 5,4% down year-on-year. This trend will probably continue, with negative growth for the sector being likely in 2023.

INTERVENTIONS

Government has instituted various land-reform programmes since 1994. Sadly, many have failed. This is unsurprising in an environment where experienced commercial farmers are finding it difficult to survive.