Global trade slows down amid policy uncertainty

Growth in global trade is expected to slow markedly this year off the back of rapidly shifting policies and persistent tariff uncertainty.

- Lindi Botha

The World Bank forecast that annual trade growth would decelerate from 3,4% in 2024 to around 1,8% in 2025.

At this pace, trade expansion would be less than half the annual average of about 4,9% in the two decades before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, said that the decade-long rise in trade restrictions had been supercharged by sharp tariff hikes and retaliatory measures from major economies over the past three months.

"Advanced economies have accounted for nearly 70% of new trade restrictions since 2022, although their trade barriers generally remain lower than those of developing economies." Of the most critical risks facing trade was the snowball effect of trade restrictions, with retaliatory tariffs, and those implemented to protect local industries, amplifying the dampening effect on trade flows.