GREATER EXPECTATIONS

Retaining his A-team from the previous cabinet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi signals continuity in his administration even as he accommodates key allies. A BW Businessworld survey of business leaders shows greater expectations from the government to continue with big bang reforms in its third term

- Arjun Yadav

ON THE morning of 4 June 2024, counting centres across the country were all geared up to finally open the ballots, marking the end of nearly 2.5 months of election campaign, the second longest since the country’s independence. Three days before that, various exit polls had given the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a victory surpassing its 2019 performance. Many suggested that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would cross the 400-seat-mark and turn the BJP’s’ “Abki Baar 400 Paar” slogan into reality. With the exit polls having got their numbers right in the previous elections, most people believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would enter his third term with a greater mandate.

As the counting of votes polled on electronic voting machines (EVMs) began at 8:30 AM, 30 minutes before the stock market’s opening, the initial trends hinted at a tight contest. As the markets opened at 9 AM, it began with a cut. By 10:30 AM, the realisation had started sinking in that something different was happening, contrary to what the exit polls had suggested. The benchmark index, Sensex, crashed nearly 6,000 points intraday as investors realised that the BJP on its own might not attain a simple majority and would have to depend on its allies, making them wary of the return of coalition politics and the progress of hard-hitting economic reforms. By closing time, the result trends had stabilised and both the main indices - Sensex and Nifty- ended nearly 6 per cent lower.

The next day, both the indices recovered 3 per cent on the back of NDA allies supporting Prime Minister Modi’s third term in office. Brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services summed up this sentiment very succinctly. “The power equation and possible political compulsions could lead to policy re-think by the NDA, but we do not think there will be a material change in the broad macro backdrop,” Emkay said in a note.