FROM HAZARDS TO CASCADES: RETHINKING CLIMATE RISK IN INDIA

THE CLIMATE CRISIS in India no longer announces itself as isolated events; it arrives in waves that collide, compound, and overwhelm. Floods rip through mountain valleys even as recurrent heatwaves choke the plains. Cyclones intensify overnight, striking with a force that cripples cities and severs supply chains. Recently in Uttarkashi, rivers turned to torrents in a matter of hours, sweeping away homes, public infrastructure and livelihoods. Across the northern plains, searing heat kept children out of classrooms and patients crowding into overstretched hospitals. Along the coasts, storms brought not just winds but surges and rains that drowned entire neighbourhoods. These are not disconnected tragedies, but they are symptoms of a new climate reality in which risks converge, amplify, and cascade through India's most fragile systems.

- by Amit Kapoor & Meenakshi Ajith

This convergence of hazards is precisely what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now warns us about. Therefore, climate risk in 2025 is less about single massive events and more about sequences of moderate events that cascade through weak systems. Take, for instance, a cloudburst in a fragile terrain triggering a landslide that cuts off power to a city reliant on uninterrupted electricity to manage its swollen rivers. Or consider how a heatwave can weaken workers, slow down voluntary migration, and then leave them stranded during the next flood. India's long-term climate burden encapsulates precisely this shift. According to the latest Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch, India ranks sixth among the most severely affected countries from 1993 to 2022, based on the economic toll and loss of life from extreme weather events. Over that 30-year span, India endured more than 400 extreme weather events, resulting in approximately 80,000 fatalities and around $180 billion in damages. This underscores a crucial truth: India is not just vulnerable to standout catastrophes, but it is chronically exposed to a chain of hazards. That historical exposure forms the fertile ground for risk cascades. When statistics show repeated floods, heatwaves, cyclones, and droughts making simultaneous landfall in different states, it's no longer adequate to plan for one hazard at a time. We need a lens that sees how these events link across space, time, and social systems.