Will 2022 be the year we stop worrying about Covid waves?

Immunity from widespread infection and vaccination could mean future outbreaks will resemble those of the flu rather than April’s catastrophic second Covid wave

- Sweta Chatterjee

Going into its third year, Covid-19 seems to be entering the endemic phase, meaning it will continue to circulate in the population but in a more predictable and less severe way. With time, the disease could even become similar to routine illnesses, such as the flu and common cold, experts say.

But the transition will happen at different times in different places, and the disease’s impact on the population will broadly depend on two factors: vaccination coverage and mutation of the virus.

The first countries to emerge from the pandemic are likely to be those with either high inoculation rates, such as the US and the UK, or widespread immunity among people from exposure to the coronavirus, like India. In that light, India’s high case count could be a silver lining.

In July, Indian Council of Medical Research’s nationwide serological survey showed over 70% of the surveyed population in eight states had been exposed to the virus (Table 1). “We can say we’ve reached the endemic stage not due to vaccination but due to natural infection,” Dr T Jacob John, retired professor and head of the departments of clinical virology and microbiology at CMC, Vellore, told