LESSONS IN THE DEFEAT

NO RIVAL COULD MATCH THE BJP’S ORGANISATIONAL STRENGTH OR BEAT ITS NARRATIVE. FINDING A WAY OUT OF THE DISARRAY AHEAD OF 2024 WON’T BE EASY

- KAUSHIK DEKA

IN 2012, THE SAMAJWADI PARTY BAGGED 227 of Uttar Pradesh’s 403 assembly seats with just over 29 per cent of the vote share and formed the government. A decade later, the party increased its vote share to 32 per cent, but could win only 111 seats, failing to pose any significant challenge to the BJP, which has retained over 40 per cent vote share in the past four polls in the state—the 2014 and 2019 general elections, and the 2017 and 2022 assembly polls.

This absolute dominance of the saffron party in India’s most politically significant state, which elects 80 Lok Sabha MPs, indicates the magnitude of the challenge opposition parties face. That the incumbent BJP is set to form the government in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur underscores the fact that the opposition parties failed to match its organisational strength and narrative, despite discontent triggered by the adverse economic impact of the Covid pandemic.

The only glimmer of hope for the Opposition is AAP’s landslide victory in Punjab, with 92 seats in the 117-member house. It makes AAP the only non-BJP, non-Congress party to be in power in more than one state. Speculation has now begun over the possibility of Arvind Kejriwal leading an opposition alliance in 2024. Those in favour of this proposition claim that the Punjab win proves Kejriwal’s credentials as a leader with acceptance beyond Delhi.