Hoping Against Hope

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BOUNCES A BIT IN THE FIRST QUARTER AS CORPORATE LEADERS REMAIN HOPEFUL OF BIGGER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY, FINDS THE LATEST BUSINESS TODAY-C FORE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SURVEY+

- MANU KAUSHIK

The exodus of companies from China is not new. It’s been happening since the start of the trade war between China and the US in 2018. The only difference this time is that India has a fair chance of attracting companies leaving China. This is in sharp contrast to the earlier situation where almost all companies which moved out of China went to CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam) countries as they were cost-efficient and better connected to the global supply chain. The Covid-19 pandemic has changed everything.

As companies look at diversifying away from China, they are looking for not just cost savings but also a captive market for their products and services. India, with its big market, is asking companies to set up base here, reportedly developing a land pool almost double the size of Luxembourg.

“Soon after the pandemic broke out, there was flight of capital from India. Later, investors started coming back as they realised that India is the best bet for them,” says Prahalathan Iyer, Chief General Manager (Research and Analysis Group) at state-run Export-Import Bank of India.

The growing prominence of India in eyes of global investors, coupled with slight recovery in key economic indicators, has improved the sentiment of corporate leaders. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) – on a scale of 100 – jumped to 47 in the April-June quarter compared with 46.3 in the previous quarter and 48.6 in the quarter before that. Market research agency C fore quizzed 500 CEOs and chief financial officers across 12 cities for the survey.