The End Of Cycles?

The world's economic graph over the next few decades may resemble jagged shards of broken glass, with many tips pointing downwards

- Udayan Mukherjee

Even though the economic world is accustomed to periodic ups and downs, most seasoned observers place their faith on a certain rhythm to this ebb and flow—namely, that corrective policy action and market forces will inevitably address the causes behind any downturn, paving the way for the next upswing. And life will go on. This cyclicality, almost akin to the seasons of nature, lies at the core of most long-term forecasting and preparation. But what if repeated assaults on the edifice of this cyclicality have brought things to a point where familiar patterns begin to disappear, making the future far more difficult to envisage with any degree of accuracy? A sense of helplessness, albeit self-induced, may begin to take root, shaking the world out of its smug complacency. We are at that crossroads today.

The dominance of the US in global economic affairs, and its obsession with the world of finance, has led us to view all matters through the prism of money. A firm belief that there is practically nothing in the world that cannot be addressed through a monetary or fiscal manoeuvre— tweaking interest rates or printing money. So, for many Americans, the best example of a Black Swan event would be the Lehman Brothers collapse, almost as much as the 9/11 attack. But, as the events of the last two years have shown, and the severe heatwaves of this summer portend, far bigger calamities probably lie in store in the years ahead, to which there is no quick fix known to man.