One More Chance For South Africa

Ramaphosa has to win big to consolidate power in the ANC. Then there’s a bigger problem: The economy

- Antony Sguazzin

When South Africans go to the polls on May 8 it will be the most important election since the black majority shook offthe shackles of apartheid in 1994 and installed Nelson Mandela as the nation’s first black president. That election ended a half-century of brutal segregation and ushered in an era that promised equal opportunities for all. The African National Congress was brought into democratic power by a global icon who’d paid for his belief in a free South Africa with almost three decades in jail. It was a time of hope and reconciliation.

The ANC has ruled the country for 25 years now. What’s at stake this time is just as important: rescuing what little is left of the gains South Africans have made since the end of apartheid. The nine-year rule of Jacob Zuma, which ended with his resignation last year, saw the willful dismantling of the country’s once-respected legal and regulatory institutions and the deterioration of a host of state companies as ANC leadership became a byword for corruption.

This isn’t about a transfer of power: The ANC is expected to win a majority in the National Assembly. Instead, it’s about tilting the balance in the war within the ruling party. Reform depends on how strong a mandate is won by Zuma’s successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, 66, a man Mandela had wanted to be his heir. A solid share of the popular vote would give him the political capital to push through changes that would reignite growth and investor confidence. A narrow victory would embolden his ANC foes—who want to preserve the status quo.