Agriculture Is Changing And So Must Agri Economist

It’s not only farmers who have to adapt to the fundamental changes occurring in world agriculture, or go out of business. Agricultural economists also have to adapt. This is the warning from Bongiswa Matoti, president of the Agricultural Economists’ Association of South Africa. The views expressed in our weekly opinion piece do not necessarily reflect those of Farmer’s Weekly.

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Many agricultural economists believe that the world, including its agricultural sector, is moving from structural to fundamental change. This will reshape value chains, business models, governments and employment, and affect the way we live and relate to one another.

As it is, farmers everywhere have already begun experiencing significant changes in markets, demand, food security, climate and technology.

-Changing markets Since about 2010, agricultural markets appear to have seen a reversal of trade liberalisation and openness. Adding to the uncertainty surrounding this trend are issues such as Brexit. Here in South Africa, we don’t know what will happen with the SA/US AGOA agreement.

Will we see more protectionism in global agricultural trade? No-one knows, but time will tell.

-Changing demand A major topic worldwide has been population growth and how this will drive food demand. While previous projections assumed that the planet’s population would keep growing, it is now expected to reach 11 billion by 2100 and stabilise.

Growing demand for agricultural products is also being driven by increasing personal incomes. Having more money results in a greater demand for food as well as a more varied diet.

- Changing food security Recent years have seen food security scares in certain parts of the world. These have largely been due to increasing food prices, with local populations protesting that food is becoming unaffordable. We have seen protests even here in South Africa.

Such protests could increase globally if issues of food security and affordability are not urgently and adequately addressed.