In some areas of military strength, China has surpassed America

The modernisation of the PLA is proceeding at an extraordinary pace.

- 

Whoever succeeds US President Joe Biden in the White House on Jan 20 will receive the same simple message from all 18 of America's intelligence agencies: Russia may be causing mayhem in Europe, but only China has the wherewithal to mount a global challenge.

"Beijing is accelerating the development of key capabilities," said the coordinating body for American spooks in 2023. Those capabilities, it added, are ones that China "believes the People's Liberation Army (PLA) needs to confront the United States in a large-scale, sustained conflict".

The PLA is still far from being ready for war with America. China's official aim is to "modernise" its armed forces by 2035 and make them world-class by 2049.

But the PLA has already undergone an extraordinary transformation, from a poorly trained and ill-equipped force two decades ago to a regional power today. The old image of China's armed forces as focusing on quantity over quality is increasingly outdated. In recent years, China has improved the effectiveness of its arms to such an extent that, in some areas, it has already matched or surpassed America.

Any analysis of China's advantages has to begin with its navy - called the People's Liberation Army Navy, or the Plan. It is not just the world's largest, but also has the newest vessels. Around 70 per cent of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared with a quarter of America's, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington.

When it comes to design and material quality, Chinese ships are in many cases comparable to America's, says the US Office of Naval Intelligence, "and China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency".

American warships tend to be larger and better armed, but China is catching up.