Passing the Baton

Perhaps it’s time for leadership to quietly change hands

- YAGNESH THAKKAR

There was a time, not too long ago, when every market conversation began with war, oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

Today, the script has changed. Officially, the US-Israel conflict has wound down (though ceasefire violations continue), oil prices have slipped back to prewar levels (though tanker availability remains an issue), India’s March quarter earnings broadly held up (though concerns over the June quarter persist), and almost every fund manager and market expert has turned bullish.

Even the weak monsoon narrative has been neatly compartmentalised. Yes, it may affect certain sectors, but only selectively, and perhaps only after a while. In other words, not enough to disturb the larger bullish story.

Ironically, despite the absence of any financial crisis, policymakers deployed measures normally associated with stressed economies to attract foreign money into the debt market. The results have been encouraging. The rupee is retracing its sharp losses, while government bond yields are steadily coming back to earth.