Dig Into Analysts' Estimates for Disruptive Companies
Bloomberg Markets|October - November 2021
THE PANDEMIC ERA generated a whole wave of disruptive companies as it accelerated the introduction of new products and services in areas including artificial intelligence, digitization, electronic payments, online meeting platforms, and virtual currencies.
DAVID TUNG

Many highfliers in those areas show key performance indicators growing at exponential rates but not much in the way of earnings or free cash flow. Some disruptive companies, however, are already cranking out impressive results on their income statements. Here are four case studies.

Moderna

At the beginning of 2020, Moderna Inc. was a small developer of messenger-RNA vaccine therapeutics and vaccines, with a market capitalization of $6.4 billion and no product on the market. Then Covid-19 spread around the world. The Cambridge, Mass.-based company’s vaccine received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last December.

Use the Company Financials function to see the jump in Moderna’s vaccine revenue and estimates for its future trend. First type “Moderna” on the command line of a Bloomberg panel and click the MRNA US Equity match. Then type “company financials” and click MODL – Company Financials. The shortcut is {MRNA US MODL }.

The Single Period tab shows consensus estimates, including low and high numbers. (To request to see a particular analyst’s model, click the Entitlements button on the red toolbar.)

Click the Multiple Periods tab (FIG. 1). It lets you view actual reported numbers alongside estimates: Moderna’s revenue spiked from a reported $803 million in 2020 to an expected $20.4 billion in 2021, as of mid-September. To visualize the trend, click the chart icon to the left of Revenue.

The Covid vaccine is expected to account for almost all total revenue for Moderna for the foreseeable future, with grants and collaboration revenue anticipated to drop this year. Vaccine revenue is projected to rise from $19.9 billion in 2021 to $20.1 billion in 2022, then decline to $11.1 billion in 2023. With ample cash exceeding $13 billion in 2021, the company is expected to invest significantly in research and development over the next three years.

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