In another decade or so, by 2030, while buses and 4-wheeled passenger vehicles will have the least level of electric adoption, it will be two and three-wheelers that will see a large adoption of electric vehicles. Two-wheeler (2W) and Three-wheeler (3W) auto segments are likely to lead the adoption curve followed by e-buses and passenger taxis.
While 4W passenger vehicle (PV) electrification is expected to follow, with 10 to 15 per cent penetration in the personal segment and 20 to 30 per cent in the commercial one by 2030, about 10 to 12 per cent of the overall market for buses is expected to be electrified by 2030.
These projections were revealed in a report by KPMG and CII. The report is titled, “Shifting gears: the evolving electric vehicle landscape in India.” This report offers a holistic view of how EVs are emerging as a disruptive force, with OEMs making investments in product development, players across the ecosystem testing and discovering new innovative business models and use cases.
KPMG in India expects 25 to 35 per cent 2W penetration, and 65 to 75 per cent in 3Ws by 2030. Since the running cost of EVs is much lower than ICE vehicles (one-tenth for 2W and 3W), a strong case emerges for a shift to EVs in B2B. Many large B2B players in e-commerce, grocery, food, courier delivery have been piloting EVs and some have moved into advanced stages of deployment.
Battery swapping, Energy as a Service etc. are being deployed to reduce upfront investment, improve vehicle uptime, eliminate range anxiety etc. Thus, we see the entire EV ecosystem come together and make EV ownership with accelerated timelines a reality, the report noted.
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