Ruth Mosalski talks to the Labour candidate confident he can win the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, despite the latest polling

FOR a man a with the weight of a whole political party's expectations on his shoulders, Richard Tunnicliffe is remarkably chipper.

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Despite the latest polling, the Labour candidate is confident he can defy the doubters and win the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, which was called after the death of his party's MS Hefin David.

Standing in his way are the candidates for the two parties the polls consistently show are leading the way in the race for the full Senedd elections next year - Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Few would contest Labour is up against it in the run-up to the by-election on October 23.

Fourteen months ago, many in the party were optimistic about the big change Sir Keir Starmer would bring, but now his woeful popularity ratings show little sign of turning around.

In Welsh-specific polling, Labour is projected to fall from its joint best performance in terms of Senedd seats won in 2021, to its worst, by some margin.

Neither are there local factors which will weigh in the 52-year-old book publisher's favour.

Here in Caerphilly, the Labour-run council is in a high court battle with campaigners over its plans to close libraries and its council leader quit partway through this by-election campaign saying he no longer thinks he is aligned with Mr Starmer's Labour Party.

These are ominous signs for a party that has consistently held the Caerphilly seat in Westminster elections for 100 years and in Senedd polls for 26. And it perhaps explains why the party declined our request to allow us to join Mr Tunnicliffe as he knocked doors canvassing in the constituency.

But very little of that seems to have impacted the new candidate's enthusiasm and optimism.

As we meet in the Village Coffee Shop in Bedwas, he poses for photographs with good grace, chats through the interview topics with vigour and, for someone politically inexperienced, deftly diverts away any questions about the national party, or polling, or its dwindling appeal in the heartlands.