THREE UPCOMING EVENTS THAT COULD TORPEDO PACIFIC PEACE

Three things are going on that could turbocharge Chinese strategic expansion in the Pacific.

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U.S. DEFENCE ARCHITECTURE IN THE PACIFIC

The first two involve what are known as the "Compact States". The United States has Compacts of Free Association (COFAs) with three independent countries: the Republic of Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM).

Through the COFAS, the three countries have voluntarily grant the United States uniquely extensive defense and security access in their sovereign territories. In the words of the Compacts: "The Government of the United States has full authority and responsibility for security and defense matters in or relating to the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia [and Palau]."

This includes the prerogative for the United States to set up and operate U.S. military bases and a veto over other countries' military access to the region. Also as part of the agreement, citizens from the Compact countries can live and work freely in the U.S. and they serve at very high rates in the U.S. miliary.

No other countries on the planet have such deep defense relationships with the United States. The Compacts extend the U.S. defensive perimeter to the waters of America's treaty allies, the Philippines and Japan, and through them to Taiwan. This "Corridor of Freedom" (including freedom of movement) underpins American strategic planning in the Pacific.

As a result, the Compact states, two of which also recognize Taiwan, are at the receiving end of a long running, well-funded, focused, and multifaceted attack by the People's Republic of China (PRC). Beijing's goal is to undermine these entities' relationships with the United States, weaken their state institutions, and ultimately to create the conditions in which, as one senior Chinese official told U.S. Admiral Timothy Keating: "You take Hawaii east. We'll take Hawaii west."

1. COMPACT RENEWAL