It's not impossible: Farage vs Johnson

Farage surges as Reform UK rattles major parties; hypothetical polls show Johnson could reclaim Tory voters and challenge Reform's rise—2026 could be a dramatic showdown.

- ANTONIA FILMER

Nigel Farage is riding on cloud 9 after his party's success in last week's mayoral and council elections. Reform UK is polling 7 points above Labour. Some predict that in the 2026 Holyrood elections, Reform UK might defeat both John Swinney, First Minister/Leader of the Scottish National Party, a lifelong politician, and Anas Sarwar, Leader of Scottish Labour, son of Chaudhury Sarwar, the first Muslim MP in the UK.

UK political parties have now been shoehorned by Reform UK into confronting the illegal migration crisis and costs. Labour and Conservatives are pitting their policies against each other. The National Audit Office reported that accommodation for asylum seekers will cost £15.3 billion over the next ten years, triple the Home Office's expectations. However, asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, and Syria are but a small percentage of illegal immigration. There are thought to be 750,000 illegal immigrants in the UK; the government has returned 24,000 since July 2024, but small boat arrivals persist with nearly 12,000 since the start of 2025, many of whom are working in the gig economy.

Folks all over the UK think this level of new arrivals is unsustainable, and Labour's support has fallen in all parts of the UK population. Reform's supporters are attracted to the party primarily because of immigration; hence the political backlash that has favoured Reform UK.