China: From drought to decline and danger

Droughts and floods have been endemic to China from time immemorial. Many Chinese dynasties have collapsed due to drought, famines and floods. The current drought is more extensive and severe.

- LT GEN P.R. SHANKAR (RETD)

The Communist Party's legitimacy to rule China in perpetuity is premised on providing a economy and flourishing life comforts to the Chinese people. Xi Jinping's aim of doubling GDP, and the per capita income by 2035 are the goal posts of this promise. These lofty ambitions are under severe threat as an ailing China has entered a declining phase. The ailments of decline include Xi Jinping's ideology, a rapid demographic decline, the uncontrollable Wuhan virus, its debt fuelled growth model and over-militarisation. If all this was not enough, China is going through the most severe drought in its modern history. This drought, whether due to climate change or weather variability, will have far reaching consequences for China. The global extent of the drought reinforces the spectre of climate change. The attendant uncertainty and implications will reinforce and hasten the decline. All this is going to compound China's future as it traverses the declining phase. In this context it is necessary to understand the drought and then evaluate its larger implications.

Droughts and floods have been endemic to China from time immemorial. Many Chinese dynasties have collapsed due to drought, famines and floods. The Chinese are mortally scared of famine and hunger. Reports even suggest that some famines were so severe that people had to resort even to cannibalism. The CCP and Xi Jinping are acutely aware of this. Hence, the whole country is paranoid about ensuring food security, grain technology and agricultural production. It also explains the massive amounts of food that China stores. Earlier, in August 2006, a drought hit Chongqing. It was then classified as the worst in 50 years wherein 2/3rd of local rivers and lakes dried up and more than 200 reservoirs became stagnant. China coped with it and continued to grow. What is new now?