Why diverse trade networks are becoming more important for Singapore

Govts, experts trying to find a way forward without US leadership of trading system

- Annabelle Liang Correspondent

Call it “G minus one”, as termed by Nobel prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Or “the world, temporarily minus one”, as Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong put it.

These characterisations of a framework for the global economy, minus America, emerged in 2025 after the reelection of US President Donald Trump and an escalation of his tariff policy.

Far from a drive to exclude the US, governments and experts are trying to find a way forward if America continues to abdicate its leadership role in the global trading system, analysts say.

The efforts have unfolded in several ways. Multilateral agreements, including those without US involvement, have drawn interest.

Plurilateral and minilateral initiatives, involving fewer countries, have also been raised by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong as avenues to make progress with like-minded partners on trade and other matters.

PM Wong said in November that Singapore’s preference was still for America to be actively engaged in conversations to shape the direction of global affairs, adding that the US can join in “at any time” when it is ready.

The US carries an outsized influence on trade. It is the world’s largest economy, the biggest importer of goods, and the top consumer market in terms of spending. It has also historically been the driver of the rules-based global trading system.

At the same time, “there is a sense that certain dynamics have fundamentally shifted in the US, and irrespective of who ultimately succeeds Trump, the US will never be fully returning to its historical role as a staunch advocate for free trade and globalisation”, former US trade negotiator Stephen Olson told The Straits Times.

“Countries are therefore wisely trying to diversify trade relationships and envision a trade system without the US,” said Mr Olson, who is a senior visiting fellow at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.